Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 8.042339 9.495739 11.096738 12.985692 15.147682 17.538967 20.377917
2025-01-26 6.243520 8.216608 10.593364 13.643970 17.429801 21.946117 27.711109
2025-02-02 5.068180 7.303123 10.201193 14.181929 19.446974 26.104810 35.082173
2025-02-09 4.295843 6.693304 10.003268 14.814585 21.519176 30.404923 42.919109
2025-02-16 3.538572 5.931529 9.432533 14.790482 22.614031 33.421454 49.230289
2025-02-23 2.852481 5.131809 8.656837 14.319734 22.955260 35.346128 54.105038
2025-03-02 2.294908 4.422304 7.892600 13.729720 22.999209 36.774370 58.294531
2025-03-09 1.964435 4.026843 7.554785 13.733357 23.896449 39.461189 64.435889
2025-03-16 1.702317 3.702028 7.280147 13.787867 24.846642 42.257014 70.880623
2025-03-23 1.471885 3.392567 6.983334 13.756104 25.628108 44.812543 77.080258
2025-03-30 1.214108 2.979179 6.436942 13.213741 25.483467 45.852103 80.922560
2025-04-06 1.057548 2.745155 6.191597 13.177939 26.188642 48.295975 87.131860
2025-04-13 0.917592 2.525112 5.951528 13.139824 26.912431 50.865606 93.792094
2025-04-20 0.866881 2.501478 6.107768 13.883380 29.119768 56.107671 105.232209
2025-04-27 0.805499 2.440229 6.175476 14.454513 31.046260 60.974230 116.297147
2025-05-04 0.755894 2.398743 6.279168 15.105663 33.168989 66.304818 128.434748
2025-05-11 0.665085 2.230004 6.073409 15.083599 33.975042 69.307558 136.642835
2025-05-18 0.559237 1.995063 5.678255 14.605477 33.826064 70.539095 141.747280
2025-05-25 0.463139 1.763378 5.252941 14.005447 33.365659 71.140889 145.716796
2025-06-01 0.410117 1.649206 5.101880 14.009214 34.150740 74.134276 154.203822
2025-06-08 0.365828 1.551935 4.979511 14.064693 35.044727 77.380016 163.309069
2025-06-15 0.323427 1.449872 4.828385 14.032384 35.740776 80.268612 171.868643
2025-06-22 0.268637 1.287741 4.484059 13.480555 35.235944 80.725988 175.784351